Market Access and the Relocation of Chinese Supply Chains: Evidence from BRI Countries

摘要

Infrastructure development along the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) corridors has progressively improved connectivity—both physical (“hard”) and institutional (“soft”)—among participating economies. This enables China to gradually build a more complex overseas supply chain system under the BRI framework. Using project-level data on transportation infrastructure projects in BRI countries from 2013 to 2018, combined with industry-level input–output tables for these economies, this study examines how improvements in market access induced by BRI transportation infrastructure affect the relocation of Chinese supply chains and identifies the underlying mechanisms. The results indicate that improved market access in BRI countries significantly facilitates the relocation of Chinese supply chains to these destinations. Mechanism analysis also shows that this effect primarily operates through China’s outward foreign direct investment (OFDI), especially in the form of non-greenfield investments and industrial projects. Moreover, heterogeneity analysis reveals that coastal countries and middle- and low-income countries are more likely to serve as destinations for relocated Chinese supply chains when market access improves. At the industry level, relocation is concentrated in sectors with low upstreamness, high transport dependence, and labor intensity. Furthermore, Chinese supply chains tend to shift toward country–industry pairs that exhibit stronger comparative advantages. These findings provide valuable insights for optimizing the global layout of Chinese supply chains and have important implications for deepening supply chain integration between China and BRI-participating countries.