Agglomeration Shadows amid China’sUrbanization: From a High-SpeedRailway Perspective

摘要

Using China’s county-level panel data of 2007-2016, this paper verifies theexistence of agglomeration shadows from an infrastructure development perspective. Withhigh-speed railway (HSR) launch as a quasi-natural experiment, we find that the launch ofHSR lines was followed by a decrease in GDP per capita of counties along the route by 2.6percentage points. This conclusion remains valid after a series of robustness tests and thetreatment of potential endogeneity problem. Mechanism analysis suggests that such effectis the most significant for counties within a distance of 97 to 195 km to the nearest centralcity, which is a manifestation of the “agglomeration shadows.” We also uncover that HSRwould spur economic growth for counties with favorable endowments. However, HSR alsohas a significant negative impact on permanent population in counties. When change inpermanent population is taken into account, HSR’s negative impact on the countywideeconomy becomes smaller. Shrinking permanent population in counties after HSR launchis a manifestation of such agglomeration shadows. HSR has facilitated the free flow ofpopulation. These findings point to the possibility that HSR may have induced regionaleconomic equilibrium amid agglomeration.